A paper by OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER’S CHIEF SCIENCE ADVISOR, Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, KNZM FRSNZ FMedSci FRS, Chief Science Advisor

Part 1 May 2016 Available for download at http://www.pmsca.org.nz

A printed version will be made available when the series is complete.

Acknowledgments The first draft of this paper was prepared by Dr Anne Bardsley of the Office of the PMCSA. Other members of the Office also provided input. Early drafts were reviewed by staff of the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management. The final draft was reviewed by the Committee of Departmental Science Advisors. We specifically acknowledge the valuable input of the following reviewers: Mark Ferguson, Science Foundation Ireland, Chief Science Advisor to the Government of Ireland David Mair, Joint Research Centre, Euorpean Commission Sarah-Jayne McCurrach, Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management Kim Wright, Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management Murray Sherwin, New Zealand Productivity Commission, Chair Strategic Risk and Resilience Panel David Johnston, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, and GNS Science Sarb Johal, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, and GNS Science Emma Hudson-Doyle, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, and GNS Science Richard Bedford, Royal Society of New Zealand and Auckland University of Technology Aidan Gilligan, SciCom – Making Sense of Science, Brussels.