New planning tool tests how zoning changes can reduce future flood risk

A new land-use model, funded by the Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake, gives planners a powerful new way to explore and test how different policy and investment decisions could reduce flood risk—before putting them into practice.

While the model doesn’t forecast exactly how many homes will be built in specific places, it helps planners and decision-makers understand the drivers behind urban development, anticipate where future risks may emerge, and test options for reducing those risks.

With 12% of New Zealand’s housing stock located in flood hazard areas—mostly in urban centres, and particularly in Auckland and Canterbury—this work comes at a critical time. Housing continues to be built on flood-prone land, often without enough risk mitigation.