Updated emissions projections to 2050

New projections show New Zealand is on track to meet its first and second emissions budgets

• The latest projections show that we can achieve our first and second emissions budgets with increased surpluses or “buffers” compared to 2024 projections.

• The first emissions budget (2022 – 2025) is 290Mt. Projections show that we can reach 282.2Mt. This is under the budget limit, or a ‘buffer’, of 7.8Mt.

• The second emissions budget (2026 – 2030) is 305Mt. Projections show that we can reach 300.5Mt. This is under the budget limit, or a ‘buffer’ of 4.5Mt.

This year’s projections show we can meet our 2050 net-zero target for long-lived gases, and we could be slightly below net zero in 2050.

The projections also show we can meet our 2050 biogenic methane target, and we are on track to achieve a 24 per cent reduction in biogenic methane emissions by 2050.

However, since 2050 is so far in the future, there’s a high degree of uncertainty around these projections.